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France v Senegal — World Cup 2026 · HOP

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Group I · Matchday 1

France v Senegal

Estadio Azteca · Mexico City · MEX

Kickoff:

🇫🇷 France squad →🇸🇳 Senegal squad →

Match log

GOAL France · Davies 6'
GOAL France · Vinicius 28'
YELLOW · France 11'

Predict & play

Pick the top two from Group I in the live Group Predictor (locks at first kickoff).

AI MATCH ANALYSIS

Villageside model · v1

HIGH CONF

FranceDRAWSenegal

62%11%27%

🇫🇷

France

3–2

🇸🇳

Senegal

Model favours France at 62% with an expected 3-2 scoreline. Draw chance: 11%. Top swing factor: rating edge — home — composite strength gap of 14 pts on the model.

Swing factors

1
Rating edge — home
Composite strength gap of 14 pts on the model.
HOME · w8

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Goal threats

K. Mbappé
France
38%
A. Griezmann
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22%
S. Mané
Senegal
38%
I. Sarr
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22%

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📍 Pre-match snapshot. The model below reflects the forecast at kickoff — it does not update from the current final result. Live xG / in-running probabilities are on the roadmap.

How this prediction works

Probabilities blend FIFA-style team strength ratings, home / host advantage, and a small set of swing factors (form, fatigue, head-to-head proximity). Weights labeled w1–w3 show relative impact (1 = edge, 3 = big swing). Snapshot taken at kickoff — does not update from live scores. Not a betting tip.

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