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Netherlands v Japan — World Cup 2026 · HOP

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Group F · Matchday 1

Netherlands v Japan

BMO Field · Toronto · CAN

Kickoff:

🇳🇱 Netherlands squad →🇯🇵 Japan squad →

Match log

GOAL Netherlands · Sané 8'
GOAL Netherlands · Pulisic 39'
GOAL Japan · Salah 36'

Predict & play

Pick the top two from Group F in the live Group Predictor (locks at first kickoff).

AI MATCH ANALYSIS

Villageside model · v1

MED CONF

NetherlandsDRAWJapan

49%19%32%

🇳🇱

Netherlands

2–2

🇯🇵

Japan

Model favours Netherlands at 49% with an expected 2-2 scoreline. Draw chance: 19%. Top swing factor: rating edge — home — composite strength gap of 7 pts on the model.

Swing factors

1
Rating edge — home
Composite strength gap of 7 pts on the model.
HOME · w7

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HOME · w5

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Goal threats

C. Gakpo
Netherlands
38%
M. Depay
Netherlands
22%
T. Kubo
Japan
38%
K. Mitoma
Japan
22%

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📍 Pre-match snapshot. The model below reflects the forecast at kickoff — it does not update from the current final result. Live xG / in-running probabilities are on the roadmap.

How this prediction works

Probabilities blend FIFA-style team strength ratings, home / host advantage, and a small set of swing factors (form, fatigue, head-to-head proximity). Weights labeled w1–w3 show relative impact (1 = edge, 3 = big swing). Snapshot taken at kickoff — does not update from live scores. Not a betting tip.

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