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United States v Paraguay — World Cup 2026 · HOP

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Group D · Matchday 1

United States v Paraguay

Estadio BBVA · Monterrey · MEX

Kickoff:

🇺🇸 United States squad →🇵🇾 Paraguay squad →

Match log

GOAL United States · Bellingham 79'
GOAL United States · Kane 79'
GOAL United States · Sané 53'
GOAL Paraguay · Kane 72'
GOAL Paraguay · Davies 47'

Predict & play

Pick the top two from Group D in the live Group Predictor (locks at first kickoff).

AI MATCH ANALYSIS

Villageside model · v1

HIGH CONF

United StatesDRAWParaguay

65%11%24%

🇺🇸

United States

2–1

🇵🇾

Paraguay

Model favours United States at 65% with an expected 2-1 scoreline. Draw chance: 11%. Top swing factor: rating edge — home — composite strength gap of 17 pts on the model.

Swing factors

1
Rating edge — home
Composite strength gap of 17 pts on the model.
HOME · w8

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Host crowd advantage

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Goal threats

C. Pulisic
United States
38%
F. Balogun
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22%

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📍 Pre-match snapshot. The model below reflects the forecast at kickoff — it does not update from the current final result. Live xG / in-running probabilities are on the roadmap.

How this prediction works

Probabilities blend FIFA-style team strength ratings, home / host advantage, and a small set of swing factors (form, fatigue, head-to-head proximity). Weights labeled w1–w3 show relative impact (1 = edge, 3 = big swing). Snapshot taken at kickoff — does not update from live scores. Not a betting tip.

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