Group C · Matchday 1

Spain v Japan

Arrowhead Stadium · Kansas City · USA

GROUP C · MD1SOON

Spain

Jun 12

06:00 PM

Japan

Arrowhead Stadium · Kansas CityUSA

Kickoff: Fri, Jun 12, 06:00 PM UTC

Predict & play

Turn this match into pot-eligible action across HOP's seven World Cup games.

AI MATCH ANALYSIS

Pondside model · v1

MED CONF

SpainDRAWJapan

57%14%29%

Spain

2–2

Japan

Model favours Spain at 57% with an expected 2-2 scoreline. Draw chance: 14%. Top swing factor: rating edge — home — composite strength gap of 11 pts on the model.

Swing factors

1
Rating edge — home
Composite strength gap of 11 pts on the model.
HOME · w8
2
Yamal ascent
18-year-old in Ballon d'Or form. Defenses can't track him.
HOME · w6
3
Technical midfield depth
Five squad players starting in top-5 European leagues.
AWAY · w5

Goal threats

L. Yamal
Spain
38%
Á. Morata
Spain
22%
T. Kubo
Japan
38%
K. Mitoma
Japan
22%

Demo predictor — heuristic on team-strength + host advantage + factor weights. For live tournaments, swap in a Claude-backed predictor with the same shape.